A new Washington consensus is born - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号)。如果该手机号尚未注册,将自动创建 FT中文网账号。短信可能需要几分钟送达,验证码15分钟内有效,请耐心等待:
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议和隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
观点 华盛顿共识

A new Washington consensus is born

The conversion by the IMF and World Bank to the return of the activist state would put Saul of Tarsus to shame
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":11.95,"text":"Anyone who, like me, was a student in the 1990s will remember how international governing institutions were then the chic thing to demonstrate against. "}],[{"start":21.049999999999997,"text":"One image that sticks with me is of a young woman carrying a figure of a three-headed troll, representing (as she earnestly told the media) the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade Organization ravaging the world’s poor. "}],[{"start":33.73,"text":"I wonder what she would think today. "},{"start":35.897,"text":"When the policy outlook on display at the recent IMF and World Bank spring meetings is compared to what drew student ire a quarter of a century ago, it amounts to a conversion that could put Saul of Tarsus to shame. "}],[{"start":47.949999999999996,"text":"The World Bank and the fund were excoriated in the 1980s and ‘90s for making the poor pay for basic health provision or presuming that deficits were bad for growth. "},{"start":56.629,"text":"That is long gone. "},{"start":58.122,"text":"Here is the new Washington consensus: "}],[{"start":61.449999999999996,"text":"Spend big on public health. "},{"start":63.678999999999995,"text":"Fiscal probity, long the core of IMF prescriptions (the joke was that the initials stand for “it’s mostly fiscal”), is no longer about reining in public spending but about getting value for money — and spending more where the value can be found. "}],[{"start":76.69999999999999,"text":"That means doing whatever it takes to produce and deliver vaccines globally. "},{"start":80.99199999999999,"text":"The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor publication estimates that getting the pandemic under control everywhere would “yield more than $1tn in additional tax revenues in advanced economies, [cumulatively], by 2025, and save more in fiscal support measures”. "}],[{"start":96.41,"text":"In other words, what governments spend on vaccinations can pay for itself many times over. "},{"start":101.702,"text":"The fund argues strongly for education spending, too, to make up for lost learning in the pandemic and help workers cope with structural changes going forward. "}],[{"start":110.67999999999999,"text":"The multilateral institutions’ economists at times seem intensely relaxed about massive deficit spending by rich countries. "},{"start":117.472,"text":"The IMF takes a benign view of US President Joe Biden’s mammoth $1.9tn rescue package "}],[{"start":124.69999999999999,"text":"Like other forecasters, it expects US national income to be higher next year than expected before the pandemic. "},{"start":131.054,"text":"And it sees insufficient demand stimulus as having permanent costs: countries whose governments spend less money will suffer more “scarring” that cuts long-term productive potential. "}],[{"start":140.91,"text":"In parallel with all of this, the IMF continues to preach prudence, but that means something very different from a decade let alone a generation ago. "},{"start":149.114,"text":"Strikingly, the fund endorses “recovery contributions” — what others might call temporary solidarity surtaxes — from rich individuals and corporate windfall profits. "}],[{"start":159.64,"text":"The message from the erstwhile headquarters of “neoliberalism” is that to make public finances sustainable, the wealthy and those who have profited from the pandemic should contribute more to the common cause. "}],[{"start":170.69,"text":"The IMF even suggested that rich countries could consider net wealth taxes, apparently channelling leftwing US senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. "}],[{"start":180.10999999999999,"text":"Concerns about inequality were everywhere at the spring meetings. "},{"start":183.75199999999998,"text":"The main policy challenge that the IMF chose to highlight was “managing divergent recoveries” — among countries and among groups within countries — due to the pandemic and in the new normal as economies recover from it. "}],[{"start":195.73999999999998,"text":"Back in the ‘90s, it was a truism the Washington consensus reflected the aligned priorities of two DCs: the international institutions based there and the US government — with the latter to a significant degree driving the former. "}],[{"start":208.89999999999998,"text":"That alignment remains. "},{"start":210.84199999999998,"text":"Multilateral calls for the return of an activist state role dovetail with Biden’s ambition to emulate Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal reforms. "}],[{"start":219.42,"text":"But it is hard to argue today that the IMF and the World Bank simply parrot US preferences, even if being on the same page as their biggest shareholder makes life easier. "},{"start":228.774,"text":"The shift in the thinking of the international economic policy community predated that of the US government. "}],[{"start":234.7,"text":"And the relationship can flow both ways. "},{"start":237.35399999999998,"text":"The White House does not take directions from the multilateral institutions located a few city blocks to the west. "}],[{"start":243.60999999999999,"text":"But it does not hurt Biden that the global guardians of economic orthodoxy have endorsed the most radical US programme in generations, especially when some Americans are engaging in friendly fire. "}],[{"start":254.75,"text":"Politics is the art of the possible — but what is possible is often determined by what is conceivable. "},{"start":260.229,"text":"The new Washington consensus could prove as politically powerful as the old one. "}],[{"start":264.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/001092112-1618199462.mp3"}

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

美国的清晨,市场的黄昏

罗奇:美国中期选举结果再令人震惊,也阻止不了经济金融周期的转向。

共和党为特朗普的失败政策付出代价

特朗普承诺增加制造业就业岗位、提高美国本土出生人口的就业率,但这两项承诺都未兑现。

“鲁珀特不想和失败者为伍”:默多克的媒体帝国对特朗普态度转冷

共和党遭遇失利后,福克斯新闻主持人质疑对伊朗战争的战略,《纽约邮报》则在头版刊出“蓝色海啸”。

Lex专栏:美国选民给数据中心建设热潮降温,未必是坏事

美国中期选举结果可能影响45%的数据中心扩建计划,但对投资者而言,这未尝不是好消息。

英国移民改革:有哪些变化?谁受益?

根据周一公布的改革计划,高收入者及其雇主可能从中受益,但英国也可能因此吓退国际学生。

电力的隐秘力量

能源转型并不像人们让我们以为的那样不可能。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×