{"text":[[{"start":8.7,"text":"Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei is benefiting from a lack of strong political rivals, with less than a third of voters able to identify a viable leader of the opposition nearly two years into his presidency."}],[{"start":24.35,"text":"August research shared with the Financial Times by local pollster Pulso, which asked respondents to name the leader of the opposition, found 43.8 per cent said there was none or that they did not know."}],[{"start":39.400000000000006,"text":"Some 25.2 per cent chose leftist ex-president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who in June was banned from politics for life and placed under house arrest over a corruption conviction."}],[{"start":55.330000000000005,"text":"Axel Kicillof — the governor of Buenos Aires province who is vying with Kirchner for leadership of Peronism, Argentina’s main left-leaning opposition — scored 9.8 per cent. Conservative ex-president Mauricio Macri, who has lost influence and right-leaning voters to Milei, scored 2.8 per cent."}],[{"start":77.38000000000001,"text":"Argentine politics, which for years revolved around a battle between Kirchner and Macri, “is now Milei versus the anti-Milei”, said Eugenia Mitchelstein, a politics professor at Buenos Aires’ San Andrés University. “There may be many anti-Milei, but none of them is the boss.”"}],[{"start":101.18,"text":"Milei, a former television economics commentator, sent Argentina’s establishment parties into disarray with his outsider victory in 2023. The ongoing disorientation has allowed him to push through significant chunks of his agenda despite his tiny congressional minority, and has boosted his chances at both midterm elections in October and presidential polls in 2027."}],[{"start":130.83,"text":"“All political parties have destroyed this country, which should be a world power,” said Matias Rino, a 47-year-old security guard from Buenos Aires’ middle-class Mataderos neighbourhood, who spoiled his ballot in the 2023 election but is considering voting for Milei in future."}],[{"start":152.51000000000002,"text":"“At least inflation is going down like he promised,” he said. “And there’s no one else.”"}],[{"start":158.65,"text":"Peronism — a populist movement focused on labour rights that has dominated Argentine politics since the 1940s — has struggled to unify behind a clear message since its presidential candidate Sergio Massa lost to Milei. Massa had presided over the onset of triple-digit annual inflation as economy minister in the previous government."}],[{"start":184.25,"text":"Peronism’s fate has become more uncertain since a June supreme court decision that upheld Kirchner’s 2022 corruption conviction. The 72-year-old — who pulled Peronism far to the left during her 2007-2015 presidency and remains its most influential leader — is now barred from being a candidate and must resign as leader of the party."}],[{"start":211.39,"text":"But Kirchner is serving her six-year corruption sentence under house arrest in downtown Buenos Aires, and is still able to greet supporters from her apartment’s balcony, receive high-profile visitors, and post on X."}],[{"start":227.58999999999997,"text":"“Kirchner will be a bit like a ghost, continuing to give her opinion and exert influence,” said Marcelo J. Garcia, Americas director at Horizon Engage consultancy. “That’s a problem for whoever wants to be the next Peronist leader.”"}],[{"start":244.56999999999996,"text":"Kicillof, a 53-year-old leftwing economist who governs a province where more than a third of Argentines live, has long appeared a natural heir for Kirchner and rival to Milei, 54. The libertarian has increasingly made Kicillof his main target in speeches, and in June called him “a Stalinist pigeon”."}],[{"start":268.96999999999997,"text":"But Kicillof has lost Kirchner’s favour after accusations that he sidelined her leftwing activist base within Buenos Aires, said Sergio Berensztein, a political analyst. “Kirchnerists call him a traitor, which in the culture of Peronism is very hard to move past.”"}],[{"start":289.4,"text":"Most of the remaining options to succeed Kirchner — such as senator Eduardo de Pedro, mayor Mayra Mendoza and activist Juan Grabois — have limited appeal outside her leftwing base."}],[{"start":304.94,"text":"While Kirchner’s ban has unified Peronists in the short term, analysts say, some appear keen to move on from the Kirchner era. Her allies released statements condemning her conviction as political persecution, but several Peronist governors and top bosses of powerful Peronist-aligned labour unions declined to follow suit."}],[{"start":330.33,"text":"Other parts of Argentina’s ideological spectrum are equally divided. Centre-right coalition Juntos Por el Cambio broke into pieces soon after the 2023 election, and its component parties have split further over whether to support Milei’s reforms. Macri’s conservative PRO party lost badly to Milei’s LLA at May elections in its bastion of Buenos Aires city, and senior leaders have defected to the libertarians."}],[{"start":363.65999999999997,"text":"However, in a warning light for Milei, the fragmented opposition has united several times in Congress in recent months to inflict defeats on his government."}],[{"start":374.78999999999996,"text":"In July, lawmakers approved boosts to pensions and social spending that threaten Milei’s flagship pledge to balance Argentina’s budget."}],[{"start":386.12999999999994,"text":"Milei vetoed the spending bills, but a two-thirds majority could override his veto. The government is negotiating with the opposition to prevent such a majority from forming."}],[{"start":398.4599999999999,"text":"Analysts say provincial governors, who influence legislators, have become frustrated with Milei’s cuts to their funding and are less willing to back him."}],[{"start":409.94999999999993,"text":"Pollsters say LLA, which was only launched in 2021, will probably significantly expand its minority in Congress at October’s midterms, potentially securing a third of seats."}],[{"start":427.44999999999993,"text":"The opposition’s ability to regroup ahead of 2027’s presidential election may hinge on Milei’s economic performance in the second half of his term, analysts said. "}],[{"start":439.5399999999999,"text":"He has delivered his main promises of slashing inflation and ending the country’s recession. But average salaries remain below early 2023 levels in real terms, and economists warn unemployment is likely to rise as the government scraps protectionist trade barriers."}],[{"start":461.1699999999999,"text":"Meanwhile, Milei’s external account policies, which have dramatically strengthened the peso and relied mostly on borrowing to increase scarce hard currency reserves, carry some risk of an abrupt peso devaluation that could undo Milei’s success on inflation."}],[{"start":479.2499999999999,"text":"“The government will probably suffer some erosion of popularity in the next few years,” Berensztein said. “But in the absence of a big macroeconomic event, the opposition’s electoral chances look quite limited.”"}],[{"start":503.9099999999999,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftmailbox.cn/album/a_1755560246_3031.mp3"}