Trump goes mainstream on the Middle East

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":5.36,"text":"Donald Trump gave an unconventional speech to the UN last week. But while the US president tilted at windmills from the rostrum — “so pathetic and so bad” — his administration used the UN General Assembly meeting to put forward a surprisingly conventional proposal for ending the war in Gaza."}],[{"start":24.32,"text":"The 21-point plan returns to ideas that have been central to Middle East peace efforts for decades. It reportedly holds out the prospect of a Palestinian state as the end point of the process — an idea that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vehemently rejected."}],[{"start":43.96,"text":"All of this makes for an awkward backdrop for today’s meeting between Trump and Netanyahu. The White House plan contains many elements Netanyahu and the extreme-right ministers in his cabinet will find very hard to either erase or accept. They include a permanent ceasefire and the creation of a multinational stabilisation force for Gaza — with troops provided by Arab and Muslim nations. This force would help rebuild the territory, leading to self-government for the Palestinians, rather than their mass ejection from Gaza."}],[{"start":80.52,"text":"The Trump plan is also important for what it leaves out. There is little trace of his previous proposal for the US to redevelop Gaza. The “Gaza Riviera” plan risked legitimising the expulsion of the Palestinians — a central goal of the Israeli far right. The new 21-point plan rules out forced displacement. Trump has also explicitly rejected Israeli annexation of the occupied West Bank — another key project of the Israeli far right."}],[{"start":111.26,"text":"So how did America get to this point and what happens next?"}],[{"start":115.72,"text":"Israel’s bombing of Qatar — aimed at killing the leaders of Hamas — was a major mis-step by the Netanyahu government. The attack frightened and infuriated the Qataris — who are very influential in Washington. Qatar is the site of a large American air base and has also hosted talks with the Taliban and Hamas, on behalf of the US. The Qataris have also pledged to give Trump a glitzy new plane. And they regularly discuss business with Trump’s inner circle — including with the family of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy."}],[{"start":154.12,"text":"Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which were at loggerheads with Qatar a few years ago — also rallied to support the Qataris after Israel’s strike. These states also weigh heavily with Trump. The debut state visits that the president made, during both his first and second terms in office, were to Riyadh."}],[{"start":174.46,"text":"During both the Biden and Trump administrations, the Netanyahu government got used to taking unilateral military action — in Lebanon, Syria and Iran — and then getting the White House to endorse their strikes retrospectively. But that stratagem may have run out of road with Qatar."}],[{"start":194.96,"text":"European countries have also toughened their policies towards Israel. Last week both France and Britain recognised a Palestinian state. Although Trump condemned those recognitions from the UN stage, his language was more restrained than that of Mike Huckabee, the US ambassador to Israel, who had called French recognition of Palestine “revolting”."}],[{"start":219.74,"text":"The Netanyahu government now finds itself dangerously isolated internationally. The recognition of Palestine by the Europeans — as well as by Canada and Australia — sparked fury in Israel. But the threatened response of unilateral annexation of the West Bank now seems to be off the table."}],[{"start":241.72,"text":"The claim by a UN-appointed panel that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza may also prove a tipping point. Moves to ban Israeli teams from European football tournaments and the Eurovision Song Contest are gathering steam. The EU’s trade and co-operation agreement with Israel is also under review. Israeli academics and some businesses fear that they are now at the receiving end of an undeclared boycott in Europe. Public opinion in the US is also shifting."}],[{"start":277.36,"text":"All of this is painful for Israeli society. But it may also be necessary to free the country from the grip of the far right. The extremists’ agenda — the intensification of the war in Gaza, the annexation of the West Bank, the expulsion of the Palestinians and the undermining of Israeli democracy — is a recipe for disaster, not just for the Palestinians, but also ultimately for Israel itself."}],[{"start":307.08,"text":"Netanyahu spoke recently of his country having to accept a degree of international isolation and becoming a “super Sparta”. The more accurate analogy would be finding itself in the same international position as apartheid South Africa."}],[{"start":323.6,"text":"The Israeli far right would nonetheless have pursued its plans, if it felt it had the backing of the Trump White House — or, at least, its tacit sign-off. The Trump peace plan shows that, for now, unqualified US backing for the Netanyahu agenda is over."}],[{"start":341.88,"text":"But will the plan get off the ground? One western diplomat who welcomes the Trump proposals nonetheless adds: “Let’s remember this is the Middle East, so there is only a 2 per cent chance that it will work.” A permanent political solution does seems very distant. A majority of Israelis and Palestinians now do not support a two-state solution."}],[{"start":364.78,"text":"But stopping the killing in Gaza and freeing the remaining hostages are worthy goals in themselves. Once those are achieved, it might be possible to rebuild the idea of two states for two peoples."}],[{"start":383.96,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1759190804_2843.mp3"}