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The bet against the dollar is showing early signs of turning, setting up yet another curveball in global markets for 2025.
押注美元走弱的交易正出现逆转的早期迹象，为2025年的全球金融市场再添一记变数。
This year, the swoon in the US currency has been one of the more notable reactions to the chaos unleashed by Donald Trump’s global trade tariffs. Instead of springing higher, as the dollar usually does in times of stress, it dropped hard, extending declines that started earlier in his second term. This made the first half of 2025 the worst start to any year for the currency in more than half a century — a massive thumbs down from global markets to the president’s adventures in geopolitics and global trade.
今年，随着唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的全球贸易关税引发混乱，美元的下挫成为最引人注目的反应之一。按理美元在动荡时期通常走强，但这一次却大幅下跌，延续了他第二个任期早些时候开启的跌势。这使2025年上半年成为半个多世纪以来美元年初表现最差的一次——全球金融市场对这位总统在地缘政治与全球贸易上的冒险投出了强烈的“反对票”。
That thumbs down sparked a historic torrent of currency trading. The Bank for International Settlements’ triennial survey of the foreign exchange market just happened to perform its analysis in April, during the wildest part of the storm. Last month, the BIS revealed that an average of nearly $10tn changed hands in the currency markets every day over that period — up by nearly a third compared with the same month three years ago.
这些“反对票”引发了一场史无前例的外汇交易浪潮。国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)对外汇市场三年一度的调查恰好在4月开展，正逢风暴最为猛烈之际。上个月，国际清算银行披露，在那段时间里，外汇市场每天平均有近10万亿美元易手——较三年前同月增长近三分之一。
That stampede out of the dollar mattered then and it still matters now. It was a warning sign that the currency’s status as a safety valve for the financial system is under pressure and a reflection of an unprecedented urge among stock and bond investors to shield themselves from risks in what is supposed to be one of the least risky currencies on earth.
当时对美元的蜂拥撤离很重要，如今仍然重要。这是一则警讯：作为金融体系安全阀的美元地位正承受压力；同时也反映出一种前所未有的倾向——股票和债券投资者争相在本应是全球最不具风险的货币之一中为自己规避风险。
Since late April, however, the dollar has gone the best part of nowhere. If anything, over the past month, it has turned higher. The DXY dollar index, which tracks its value against a basket of other currencies, has gained a modest 3 per cent since early September. Now, analysts and investors are cautiously asking themselves whether the lows are behind us.
然而，自4月下旬以来，美元基本上原地踏步。如果说是变化，过去一个月里它还有所回升。追踪美元相对一篮子其他货币价值的DXY美元指数自9月初以来温和上涨了3%。如今，分析师和投资者开始谨慎自问：低点是否已经过去。
Steve Englander, head of currencies research at Standard Chartered, has been making this case in analysis that he says “makes jaws drop”.
渣打银行货币研究主管史蒂夫•英格兰德(Steve Englander)在其分析中一直在阐述这一观点，他称这些分析“令人瞠目结舌”。
“We see a path by which dollar exceptionalism can be maintained through rapid productivity and profits growth, and consequent strong capital inflows,” he wrote in a note to clients.
“我们认为，美元的特殊地位可以通过生产率和利润的快速增长以及随之而来的强劲资本流入得以维持，”他在致客户的报告中写道。
“We see tantalising, but tentative, evidence that trend productivity growth is rising,” he added. If that holds, it “could be a precursor to a surprising rebound in the dollar”. If he is right, an awful lot of investors will have a lot of catching up to do.
“我们看到了令人振奋但仍属初步的迹象，表明趋势性生产率增速正在上升，”他补充说。如果这一趋势得以保持，“可能会成为美元出人意料反弹的前兆”。如果他的判断正确，许多投资者将有大量工作要追赶。
Deep analysis of productivity growth is one thing, but another underrated factor here is the dirtiest shirt dynamic in currency trading. Sure, the US, and therefore the dollar, has its problems. But other currencies are not exactly a screaming buy at this point, making the buck look like a decent fit.
深入分析生产率增长是一方面，但这里另一个被低估的因素是外汇交易中的最脏衬衫动态。没错，美国，以及因此美元，确实有自身问题。但其他货币目前也远称不上值得大举买入，使得美元看起来反而是个像样的选择。
The Japanese yen has taken a big hit since the selection of a new prime-minister-in-waiting, Sanae Takaichi. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted just around three weeks ago that they were positive on the yen, but in recent days they said they were now getting out. “Sanae Takaichi’s surprise victory reintroduces too much uncertainty around Japan’s policy priorities and the timing of the Bank of Japan hiking cycle,” they said.
自从“候任首相”高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)出线以来，日元遭受重挫。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师在大约三周前还表示看好日元，但近几日称他们已开始撤出。“高市早苗意外胜出，让日本政策优先事项以及日本银行加息周期的时间点充满不确定性，”他们表示。
In Europe, meanwhile, France’s political circus continues, and while it is not rumbling the country’s government bonds too badly (investors know full well the European Central Bank would put out any serious fires), the whole thing has hit French stocks and put a lid on what has been a great run for the euro this year. Sterling cannot do much beyond treading water ahead of the Budget next month — a high-stakes event that, if all goes well, will prove to be a snooze-fest in markets.
与此同时，在欧洲，法国的政治闹剧仍在继续。虽然这并未对该国国债造成太大冲击（投资者深知欧洲央行(European Central Bank)会扑灭任何严重的火情），但整件事已经打击了法国股市，并给今年以来表现强劲的欧元走势盖上了盖子。英镑在下个月预算案公布前恐怕也很难有太大动作——这是一场高风险的事件，如果一切顺利，最终在金融市场上也将不过是一场让人昏昏欲睡的戏。
In a note this week, Goldman Sachs pointed out that its measure of speculative flows in the dollar — often a leader for other types of trades — has shown a markedly more positive tone of late. “An outsized increase in bullish dollar positioning” has helped propel the currency to its highest point in two months, the bank said, driven particularly by an aversion among speculators to the yen and the euro.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)本周在一份报告中指出，其用于衡量美元投机资金流向的指标——通常是其他类型交易的领头羊——近日明显转向更为积极的基调。该行称，“看涨美元头寸的显著增加”推动美元升至两个月高位，这主要受到投机者对日元和欧元的避险倾向所驱动。
The economic picture is also important here, particularly in relation to the creeping suspicion that tariff-driven inflation is not dead but just dormant. If it were to rear its ugly head towards the end of this year and the start of next, it would become very tricky even for a heavily Trump-influenced Federal Reserve to deliver the bumper run of interest rate cuts that market participants have been expecting.
这里的经济形势同样重要，尤其是考虑到一个挥之不去的疑虑：由关税推动的通胀并未消亡，只是暂时蛰伏。如果它在今年年底到明年年初再次抬头，即便是在深受特朗普影响的美联储，也将难以兑现市场参与者所预期的大规模降息周期。
All things being equal, that sets the scene for the dollar to at least hold steady, and possibly even push higher.
在其他条件不变的情况下，这为美元至少维持稳定、甚至进一步走强奠定了基础。
As investors know well, predicting the path of currencies is a fool’s errand. The wide range of variables on each side of each trade makes this a fiendishly difficult task, and accuracy is often the result of dumb luck. A persistently creaky US jobs market would go a long way to limiting any upswing.
正如投资者所深知的那样，预测货币的走向几乎是不可能完成的任务。每笔交易两端牵涉到的变量极其繁多，使得这一任务异常艰难，而所谓的“准确”往往不过是误打误撞的运气使然。若美国就业市场持续疲弱，将在很大程度上抑制任何上行走势。
For now, the US currency is still 9 per cent weaker than it was at the start of this year. If it stays at this level to the end of the year, it would be the biggest annual fall since 2017. But if this autumnal pick-up gathers momentum, it could trigger a scramble to reset portfolios and produce a bracingly rapid ascent.
就目前来看，美元仍比年初疲弱9%。如果维持到年底，这将是自2017年以来最大年度跌幅。但若这股秋季回升势头继续增强，可能会引发投资组合的重新配置热潮，并推动美元迅速而有力地反弹。
katie.martin@ft.com