In the age of AI, what should your kids study at university?

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":8.54,"text":"Autumn is the season of mists, mellow fruitfulness and college choices. In the UK and US teenagers have begun agonising over which courses to go for. Hard application deadlines typically fall in January, February or before."}],[{"start":28.52,"text":"Broad-brush career choice plays a part in degree choice. Decision-making this year comes with an added dash of uncertainty, due to artificial intelligence. Computers can now assemble data, write text and crunch numbers to the same general level of incompetence as we humans."}],[{"start":47.120000000000005,"text":"The result is high anxiety about the potential obsolescence of some jobs and a knock to the earnings of graduates who are wrong footed. What advice should parents now give their kids about paybacks on university courses? Costs are steep in the US. They are lower in the UK, though from next year fees will be linked to inflation."}],[{"start":70.42,"text":"In my experience as a middle-class Briton, parental steers have traditionally split into two broad camps."}],[{"start":77.66,"text":"Pragmatic: (Rattling ice in G&T anxiously) “Sweetie, I really think you should think twice before applying for circus studies. There’s no money in juggling. Ask Uncle Reggie. Why not become a commercial litigator — like me?”"}],[{"start":93.99,"text":"Idealistic: (Taking a steadying sip of homemade medlar wine) “Circus studies? That’s a wonderful plan, darling! You’ll be following your dream! And we can always help out financially if you need a backup qualification.”"}],[{"start":110.24,"text":"Such responses may no longer be fit for purpose as a result of AI. Should parents now apply a piquant discount factor to the prospects of the would-be actuary? Might a course entitled Slam Poetry: Theory and Practice prove more rewarding than it might first appear?"}],[{"start":128.97,"text":"When thinking about returns on career choices, I previously relied on the work of economic researchers. A 2020 UK study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies is widely cited. It estimated, for instance, that a woman would earn a nominal median lifetime return of £820,000 after costs from a medical degree. A man qualified in the creative arts would make a negative return of some £200,000, assuming he stayed in the sector. The baseline for these figures was the expected earnings of equally promising youngsters who did not go to college."}],[{"start":170.11,"text":"Most studies predate the deployment of AI in the workplace. Careers that typically follow on from numbers-based degrees once commanded steep financial premia. This advantage may be reduced in future, if you believe “hit lists” of professions supposedly imperilled by AI."}],[{"start":188.89000000000001,"text":"To illustrate this supposition, I selected data from two US sources. First, a recently published Microsoft ranking of how susceptible different job categories are to substitution by AI. Second, annual pay data for those occupations from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The resulting scattergram shows a frontier where pay healthily outweighs AI exposure for lawyers and is in approximate balance for financial advisers."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":220.42000000000002,"text":"Naturally, pay and outlook both stink in media and communications, the category into which my activities as a journalist and author fall. I am therefore thinking of retraining as a “dredge operator”, a maritime profession that Microsoft deems future proof. I picture myself as one of those weather-beaten old guys who lean against harbour walls in Cornwall or Maine, telling tall tales of narwhals and tide rips."}],[{"start":247.9,"text":"Compelling UK data on AI vulnerability was harder to come by. The Department for Education has produced a limited ranking. I have extracted a top ten and garnished it with relevant pay rates."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":262.74,"text":"Remuneration levels in both charts may appear low to better-off readers. Remember that job categories such as “business manager” may include numerous line bosses as well as a small number of highly paid executives."}],[{"start":277.53000000000003,"text":"To me, a larger issue is the assumptions underlying AI hit lists. These appear crude. It is legitimate to observe that AI can complete some workplace tasks quickly and reasonably well. It is a leap of faith to infer that this will result in the elimination of jobs, or cuts to remuneration in broad categories of employment. It would be safer to assume that professions and paybacks may change in ways we cannot predict."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":308.07000000000005,"text":"Some coverage of workplace AI smacks of the “lump of labour” fallacy: the delusion that there is a pre-determined quantity of jobs. It follows — misleadingly — that job availability is reduced by automation or immigration. Instead, capacity tends to generate employment."}],[{"start":328.16,"text":"We should also consider the possible biases of researchers. It amused me that management consultants topped the DoE hit list: they often work alongside resentful UK civil servants, who are paid much less. Microsoft’s rankings prompt another doubt: might this tech giant have a financial motive for fostering a public belief in the wide utility of technology from which it aims to profit?"}],[{"start":356.01000000000005,"text":"Microsoft’s own Copilot chatbot says the company is spending £100bn on AI. But I found this hard to verify, like a lot of Copilot’s factoids"}],[{"start":369.70000000000005,"text":"AI is obviously a big, disruptive deal. But aspiring students and their parents should not freak out. Many old rules will continue to apply. “Education is about problem solving, critical thinking and decision making. Those abilities will remain hugely valuable,” says Lizzie Crowley of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development."}],[{"start":394.88000000000005,"text":"If you require real-world wisdom, country music is often a better place to find it than economic research. In closing, I will therefore cite the title of Kacey Musgraves’ album Same Trailer, Different Park as defining the likely position of a hopeful graduate trainee in an integrated human/AI workplace."}],[{"start":416.88000000000005,"text":"The singer’s specific advice to young people also has merit: “Follow your arrow — wherever it points.” A warning to parents: juggling cannot be ruled out."}],[{"start":428.56000000000006,"text":"Jonathan Guthrie is a writer and adviser; jonathanbuchananguthrie@gmail.com"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":443.4000000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1762297923_1133.mp3"}