{"text":[[{"start":10.913,"text":"The IMF has cut Britain’s growth prospects for 2026 by more than any other G7 nation as the fund warns that the country faces a heavy blow from the global energy crisis."}],[{"start":23.763,"text":"GDP will expand 0.8 per cent this year, 0.5 percentage points below the IMF’s previous forecast in January, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. As a result, unemployment will be driven towards its highest level in over a decade."}],[{"start":40.24,"text":"Chancellor Rachel Reeves will portray the UK as a “safe haven” amid geopolitical volatility as she travels to Washington for the meetings this week. But her attempts to promote the country’s attractions for international investment will clash with a downbeat outlook for the UK’s economy."}],[{"start":57.833,"text":"Reeves on Tuesday dubbed the US-Israeli invasion of Iran “a folly”, in a hardening of the British government’s criticism of the war."}],[{"start":66.653,"text":"In its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday, the IMF singled out the UK as one of the countries set to suffer a “large negative effect” from the energy crisis as it lowered its UK growth forecast for this year and next."}],[{"start":80.67,"text":"The reduction for 2026 was the steepest of any G7 country. The forecast for 2027 was trimmed by 0.2 percentage points to 1.3 per cent."}],[{"start":90.433,"text":"The unemployment rate would reach 5.6 per cent this year, the IMF predicted, well above the most recent reading of 5.2 per cent in the November-to-January period, and a sharp increase on the fund’s previous predictions. That would put joblessness at the highest rate since 2015."}],[{"start":108.72,"text":"There are two key reasons for the steep GDP growth downgrade, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in an interview with the FT."}],[{"start":118.232,"text":"The first was the very “gas-intensive” nature of the UK energy mix, given the fossil fuel’s importance for heating homes and in determining electricity prices."}],[{"start":127.76,"text":"On top of this, the GDP forecast was driven by weak growth data in the second half of 2025, which is weighing down the outlook this year. UK output grew just 0.1 per cent in the third and fourth quarters of 2025."}],[{"start":141.757,"text":"The UK’s predicted growth rate for this year is similar to the expansions predicted for Germany and France, but well below the 2.3 per cent growth forecast for the US."}],[{"start":152.48,"text":"The IMF downgrade follows a similar verdict from the OECD last month, which slashed its growth outlook for the UK by more than for any other G20 country. The IMF’s new forecasts show steeper downgrades for G20 members Saudi Arabia and Turkey."}],[{"start":169.92,"text":"Inflation in the UK is expected to pick up temporarily towards 4 per cent before returning to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target by the end of 2027 as the effects of higher energy prices fade and the jobs market weakens, the IMF said."}],[{"start":186.036,"text":"The fund’s full-year 2026 forecast for inflation was raised to 3.2 per cent, well above its October prediction of 2.5 per cent consumer price growth, followed by inflation of 2.4 per cent in 2027."}],[{"start":200.212,"text":"Reeves said that “no sensible person” supported the Iranian regime but she also directly criticised Washington for its lack of strategic aims."}],[{"start":209.527,"text":"“To start a conflict without being clear what the objectives are and not being clear about how you are going to get out of it, I do think that is a folly and it is one that is affecting families here in the UK but also families in the US and around the world,” she told the Daily Mirror."}],[{"start":226.08,"text":"Despite investors betting that the BoE is set to raise rates at least once this year, Gourinchas said the IMF expected UK monetary policy to be kept on hold in 2026. The BoE next announces its interest rate decision on April 30."}],[{"start":244.16,"text":"Given the economy’s weakness, the central bank will go on to lower interest rates three times in 2027 from the current 3.75 per cent, the fund predicted."}],[{"start":252.16,"text":"Central banks can generally “look through” an energy-price surge as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored, Gourinchas said in a blog post."}],[{"start":261.471,"text":"“But if medium- or long-term inflation expectations drift up as prices and wages pick up, restoring price stability must take precedence over near-term growth, with a swift tightening.”"}],[{"start":270.8,"text":"In a statement, Reeves said: “The war in Iran is not our war, but it will come at a cost to the UK. These are not costs I wanted, but they are costs we will have to respond to.”"}],[{"start":289.44,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1776227802_4440.mp3"}