{"text":[[{"start":6.8,"text":"After weeks of tortuous back-channel talks set against belligerent rhetoric, the US and Iran seem to be edging towards an agreement to extend a fragile ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lay the foundations, potentially, for a more comprehensive deal. "}],[{"start":24.900000000000002,"text":"The diplomatic push is tenuous. President Donald Trump said on Saturday the deal had “largely been negotiated” and would “be announced shortly”. The world is still waiting. US strikes on Iranian missile launchers and ships overnight on Monday underlined the fragility. The talks, however, have continued. "}],[{"start":44.55,"text":"An agreement would not guarantee a permanent end to the war. But it would reduce the risks of a full-blown resumption of the conflict. Reopening the strait would begin to ease the worst energy crisis in decades and reduce global recession risks."}],[{"start":58.8,"text":"Will it be a good deal? It depends on the options. As things stand, there are no better options after a US-Israeli attack that should have never have taken place. The alternatives would be to maintain the status quo, a dirty ceasefire with the strait all but closed; to resume strikes on Iran, which is likely to deepen the quagmire and trigger more Iranian retaliation against Gulf states; or for Trump to declare “victory” and wash his hands of the crisis he ignited."}],[{"start":86.15,"text":"Hawkish Republicans have predictably criticised the deal. Yet it was the hawks’ beating of the war drums (along with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s arguments) that helped encourage Trump to plunge the world into this mess. The US president, and Netanyahu, from the outset lacked a coherent strategy and underestimated their enemy. Trump seemed surprised that Iran lashed out against the US’s Gulf allies and was able to hold the strait hostage. Now Tehran has newfound leverage that threatens to harden its stance at the negotiating table. "}],[{"start":118.60000000000001,"text":"Iran, too, needs a deal after weeks of bombardment. The Islamic regime has defied those who considered it a paper tiger. It is still standing and even more hardline, still displaying an ability to strike US bases and Gulf energy infrastructure with precision. It has, however, endured devastating blows, including the loss of its veteran supreme leader Ali Khamenei and top defence and military officials. Its infrastructure has been battered, including steel and petrochemical plants that were a vital source of revenue and jobs. The regime, already decaying and bereft of legitimacy, must begin reconstruction knowing its key test is yet to come at home. "}],[{"start":158.75,"text":"Critical questions remain over the future status of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme, already set back by US-Israeli strikes. Under the proposed agreement, Tehran would not charge ships a fee for the duration of the 60-day period. There is a commitment to discuss Iran either diluting or handing over its stockpile of uranium enriched close to weapons grade. The regime would also commit to never developing a nuclear weapon. If it makes concessions, there is the promise of phased sanctions relief and unfreezing of assets held overseas. But that would depend on the progress of talks towards a final comprehensive deal. "}],[{"start":197.3,"text":"There will be unfinished business. Critical issues including Iran’s missile and drone arsenal are left for another time. In essence, regional powers will be left to discuss their security concerns and the future management of the strait with Iran. There is also a danger that this deal, like Trump’s plan to end the war, stagnates in its initial phase."}],[{"start":217.4,"text":"The deal, if agreed, is no panacea for the root causes of a crisis that has festered for decades. But it was never going to be after Trump took the fateful decision to ditch diplomacy and go to war. What it does offer is the art of the possible, a chance to end the escalatory cycle. That, for now, is the least worst option."}],[{"start":245.4,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779859094_6204.mp3"}