Swiss voters weigh world’s first population cap

{"text":[[{"start":6,"text":"Switzerland will decide on Sunday whether it should become the first country to cap its population, in a vote that has exposed divisions over immigration and could put the country on a collision course with the EU."}],[{"start":19.25,"text":"Polling suggests the race remains too close to call, fuelling questions over how limiting the number of residents of one of Europe’s most open and cosmopolitan economies would be implemented."}],[{"start":30.2,"text":"The vote — which has become one of the most expensive and fraught in Swiss history — would cap the country’s population at 10mn people, from about 9.1mn today. "}],[{"start":40.2,"text":"Led by the rightwing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the initiative would require the government to act once the population reached 9.5mn, such as by tightening rules on asylum and family reunification. If it surpassed 10mn, ministers would have to act more forcefully, potentially ending free movement with the EU if other measures proved insufficient."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":61.050000000000004,"text":"With a significant share of voters still undecided, both camps were intensifying efforts to sway opinion in the final days before the ballot. Backing for the proposal has declined as the campaign has progressed. "}],[{"start":73.75,"text":"Support for the initiative peaked at 52 per cent in a Tamedia poll in April. A second SRG poll published earlier this month put the Yes camp on 45 per cent, against 52 per cent for No, although observers cautioned that immigration-related votes have historically proved difficult to poll."}],[{"start":94.05,"text":"The campaign has succeeded in reframing a discussion on immigration into a broader discussion about quality of life, housing, infrastructure and environmental sustainability."}],[{"start":105.05,"text":"“Switzerland, our fatherland, our dear homeland, is bursting at the seams,” said SVP vice-president and co-initiator of the initiative Thomas Matter. "}],[{"start":114.64999999999999,"text":"The debate is striking in a country that has benefited from decades of immigration, including highly skilled workers from neighbouring EU countries who have helped fuel growth and productivity in sectors from pharmaceuticals to finance. "}],[{"start":127.64999999999999,"text":"Like much of Europe, Switzerland faces an ageing population and a low birth rate, making immigration an important source of labour force growth and tax revenue."}],[{"start":137.1,"text":"About 30 per cent of Switzerland’s residents were born abroad and it has the sixth-highest GDP per capita, according to the World Bank."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":144.5,"text":"The intensity of the battle is reflected in campaign spending, which has reached record levels for a Swiss referendum, with supporters and opponents together declaring more than SFr15mn ($17.5mn) in funding, according to the Federal Audit Office. The previous record was SFr10mn in 2024. "}],[{"start":165.7,"text":"It has also generated other controversies. The Egerkinger Komitee, an advocacy group associated with past campaigns including a face-covering ban, launched an online game in which players acted as border guards. Critics said the game, titled “Protect Switzerland instead of creeping Islamisation”, inflamed anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment."}],[{"start":188.1,"text":"Yet the success of the Yes campaign has rested less on such controversies than on its ability to link migration to everyday concerns. Observers say that message has resonated with voters well beyond the SVP’s core supporters."}],[{"start":200.95,"text":"“[The campaign] has been artfully put together,” said Simon J Evenett, a professor of geopolitics at IMD, the business school. "}],[{"start":209.7,"text":"There are also parallels with the UK’s decision to leave the EU, Evenett added, with the topic sufficiently sensitive that some supporters may be less willing to disclose their views to pollsters. “In that sense it has all the hallmarks of Brexit,” he said. "}],[{"start":224.64999999999998,"text":"The vote is being held under Switzerland’s system of direct democracy, which allows citizens to amend the constitution through nationwide referendums. "}],[{"start":233.7,"text":"On current projections, Switzerland is unlikely to reach the initial 9.5mn population threshold until after 2030, making it harder for opponents to argue the proposal poses an immediate threat to the economy."}],[{"start":247.75,"text":"Critics note that the practical impact of the “Nachhaltigkeitsinitiative (Sustainability Initiative)”, its other official name, would fall not on highly skilled workers but on asylum seekers and families seeking reunification."}],[{"start":261.25,"text":"The vote echoes a 2014 SVP-backed initiative to curb immigration that narrowly passed but was ultimately implemented in a watered-down form, fuelling criticism among supporters that the will of voters had been diluted to preserve Switzerland’s relationship with the EU."}],[{"start":279.35,"text":"Beat Jans, Switzerland’s justice minister, has argued against the initiative as offering “empty promises”, saying it would fail to solve problems such as housing shortages and congestion while risking Switzerland’s bilateral agreements with the EU. The government has also highlighted how post-Brexit Britain experienced an increased number of asylum seekers, not a decrease. "}],[{"start":301.8,"text":"Michael Siegenthaler, a labour economist at ETH in Zurich, said that while there might be no immediate impact if the thresholds were reached, there would be immediate policy uncertainty. "}],[{"start":312.45,"text":"“Acceptance would immediately throw Switzerland’s agreements with the EU into question,” he said. "}],[{"start":317.95,"text":"“The legal and political questions about how an accepted initiative would interact with the bilateral agreements would also need to be resolved without much delay. They would not wait for the population counter to hit 10 million.”"}],[{"start":338.25,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781258274_3906.mp3"}