{"text":[[{"start":5.65,"text":"This week marks the halfway point of the interim deal the US and Iran signed last month to extend a ceasefire 60 days and — crucially for President Donald Trump — reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The hope had been that by day 30, which falls on Wednesday, mines would be cleared from the waterway and shipping would be returning to prewar levels, toll-free. "}],[{"start":26.799999999999997,"text":"Instead, after days of tit-for-tat strikes, Iran announced at the weekend that it was once more fully closing the strait. The US president then said he would reimpose a naval blockade on Iranian ports that he had lifted after the signing of the memorandum of understanding (MoU). Vexed at his inability to impose his will on Iran, Trump insisted on Monday the US would charge a 20 per cent fee on cargo through the strait then retracted his plan on Tuesday."}],[{"start":53.75,"text":"All this would be farcical were it not so serious. The longer shipping through the strait is blocked the more pain will be heaped on the global economy, particularly on poorer energy importers. Before the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passed through the narrow waterway, along with petrochemicals, helium and fertiliser feedstock. The longer the US and Iran battle over control of it, the greater the risk that the escalatory cycle plunges the region back into a full-blown war."}],[{"start":83.1,"text":"The quagmire underlines once again the foolishness of the war launched by Trump against the advice of many of his allies and without much understanding of his enemy. A crisis of Trump’s own making has left Tehran with newfound leverage in the strait, which Iran had never before closed in the past. It has also led to the rise of a more hawkish leadership, emboldened by its ability to withstand US-Israeli bombardment and raise the costs to the global economy."}],[{"start":110.35,"text":"The Islamic regime is determined not to surrender control of the waterway. And for all Trump’s insistence that the US can reopen the strait, there is no chance of shipping returning to any semblance of normality as long as Iran is attacking vessels. "}],[{"start":125.89999999999999,"text":"Tehran is recklessly overplaying its hand. In the MoU, it committed to “make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels”. Instead, it is attacking ships daily. For all its defiance, the Islamic republic suffered devastating blows in the war and its economy is in crisis, with inflation soaring to about 90 per cent. The angrier Trump becomes, the greater the risk he lashes out by targeting critical civilian infrastructure as he has threatened."}],[{"start":155.5,"text":"There is still an exit route. The MoU has drawn much criticism, but it offered an alternative to endless war and was never meant as a final deal. It was designed to foster a de-escalatory climate to allow talks on a final settlement, including on Iran’s nuclear programme. It gave both sides an incentive to pursue a diplomatic path. For Trump, restarting traffic through the strait would at least begin to ease the global energy squeeze. For Iran, it would have begun to unlock billions of dollars of its frozen funds. The significant sanctions relief Tehran desires would only come with a final deal. "}],[{"start":195.45,"text":"The battle over the strait has upended that process. A key problem is that Iran interprets the MoU’s language as enabling it to retain control over the waterway. The US, meanwhile, has encouraged ships to avoid Iranian waters and use a route along Oman’s coast, diluting Tehran’s influence. Unless this dispute is resolved, the path to a diplomatic end to the war is blocked. The only way to break the deadlock is for the warring parties to return to the negotiating table and work with mediators on a modus vivendi for the strait. If not, they will remain trapped in a deadly game of brinkmanship that neither side can win."}],[{"start":238.1,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1784085546_4609.mp3"}