Who killed Britain’s electric car dreams?

{"text":[[{"start":7.08,"text":"In 2021, when the UK government first consulted on electric vehicle targets, optimism was in the air."}],[{"start":14.48,"text":"Several western carmakers were promising to be electric-only by the end of the decade, trying to replicate the success of Tesla."}],[{"start":21.72,"text":"A Conservative prime minister, Rishi Sunak, eventually set a target for 80 per cent of British cars to be all-electric by 2030."}],[{"start":29.6,"text":"Now, however, Andy Burnham’s Labour government is preparing to lower the target — the third downward revision in three years."}],[{"start":37.96,"text":"Even with petrol and diesel prices surging, and electric vehicle prices falling, carmakers argue that British consumers simply have not embraced new technology as quickly as forecast."}],[{"start":48.04,"text":"“I’m sure we will be a winner of electrification. I am 100 per cent sure,” Renault’s chief executive François Provost told the FT."}],[{"start":54.18,"text":"“But at the same time, we have to be a bit realistic.”"}],[{"start":60.32,"text":"Some analysts, however, counter that the carmakers themselves are responsible because they failed to offer cheap, attractive electric cars."}],[{"start":68.16,"text":"At the COP31 summit in Turkey, which Burnham attended this week, climate advocates expressed disbelief at the government’s looming change."}],[{"start":75.96,"text":"The zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate was “great”, said Nigel Topping, chair of the Climate Change Committee, at COP31. “It’s working, saving people money and getting us off petrol and improving energy security.”"}],[{"start":89.4,"text":"“What is the logic for slowing it down?”"}],[{"start":92,"text":"The FT reported in October that the government had sounded out the industry on cutting the 2030 all-electric threshold from 80 per cent to 60 per cent, higher than the 50 per cent that carmakers such as Renault want."}],[{"start":104.74,"text":"That comes as all-electric cars are set to miss the government’s headline target for the third year in a row — although the rules have enough flexibility that carmakers have achieved the overall ZEV mandate without paying fines."}],[{"start":117.2,"text":"Battery electric cars made up 27 per cent of all cars sold in the UK so far this year, below the headline 33 per cent target, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the trade body."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":128.32,"text":"The car industry has blamed weaker than expected demand, rising electricity costs and the lack of public charging infrastructure, particularly in rural areas."}],[{"start":137.94,"text":"As of October, the UK had 1.82 charging points per 1,000 people, according to charging app Zapmap, a figure roughly in line with the EU average."}],[{"start":147.8,"text":"In the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark, countries with higher EV penetration, there are six to 10 public charging points per 1,000 people, data by ChargeUp Europe showed."}],[{"start":157.92,"text":"Yet the arrival of cheap Chinese cars has challenged the carmakers’ narrative that consumers are not ready for electric vehicles."}],[{"start":165.4,"text":"Chinese carmakers and Chinese-owned brands such as BYD and Chery have taken a combined 22 per cent share of the UK car market so far this year with their affordable hybrids and EVs."}],[{"start":176.88,"text":"Unlike the EU, the UK does not charge extra tariffs on Chinese EVs."}],[{"start":181.76,"text":"“The original ZEV targets may have been overly ambitious, but manufacturers must take some responsibility for falling behind,” said Andy Palmer, the former chief executive of Aston Martin."}],[{"start":192.8,"text":"“Chinese competition has exposed how slowly some have moved.”"}],[{"start":196.38,"text":"In the initial phase of the ZEV mandate, there were only 21 new EV models under £30,000, according to online marketplace Auto Trader."}],[{"start":205.18,"text":"China also exposed western manufacturers’ mistakes in battery technology."}],[{"start":209.84,"text":"European and US carmakers historically chose nickel-rich batteries for their longer range, while China became dominant in the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which are cheaper."}],[{"start":219.36,"text":"With rapid improvements in energy density, western carmakers have been forced to pivot to lithium-ion batteries to bring down the costs."}],[{"start":226.6,"text":"That shift has allowed for the recent launch of more affordable models from brands such as Renault and Volkswagen that are below £25,000, such as R5 and ID. Polo."}],[{"start":237.12,"text":"There are now 45 models under £30,000, of which 10 are Chinese."}],[{"start":242.08,"text":"The discussion over EV targets has now evolved into a debate over how to protect the western car industry from Chinese competition by allowing more sales of hybrid vehicles for longer."}],[{"start":252.44,"text":"The ZEV mandate revision will also align with EU policy, sending the message the UK will support European manufacturers “to compete with the new entrants”, said Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive."}],[{"start":264.8,"text":"Western carmakers still earn less profit from most EVs than they do from petrol vehicles."}],[{"start":269.52,"text":"In a letter to government ministers in April, Eurig Druce, the UK boss of Vauxhall owner Stellantis, highlighted “the sustained impact of Chinese imports” as worsening the burden of the ZEV mandate."}],[{"start":282.44,"text":"There are now 190 EV models on the market in the UK, more than petrol and diesel vehicles combined."}],[{"start":289.12,"text":"The gap in sticker prices between EVs and petrol alternatives has fallen from 34 per cent in late 2023 to 14 per cent, according to Autotrader."}],[{"start":299.24,"text":"Demand has also been boosted by the UK’s £2bn electric car grant, launched last year, although gaps in government policy remain with the high public charging costs and its plans to introduce a pay-per-mile tax for electric vehicles from 2028."}],[{"start":314,"text":"Nonetheless, the industry has made its case repeatedly to government."}],[{"start":318.32,"text":"July 2021: ZEV mandate first proposed"}],[{"start":322.12,"text":"September 2023: Then-prime minister Rishi Sunak finalises 2030 target, while delaying ban on new petrol and diesel cars to 2035"}],[{"start":331.88,"text":"December 2023: ZEV mandate legislated and implemented from January 2024"}],[{"start":338.28,"text":"April 2025: Keir Starmer government announces new flexibilities for ZEV mandate"}],[{"start":344.28,"text":"August 2025: Consultation on ZEV mandate review begins"}],[{"start":349.76,"text":"Since the ZEV mandate came into effect in early 2024, SMMT and big carmakers such as Nissan and Jaguar Land Rover have met with UK government officials more than 200 times, according to InfluenceMap, which tracks global corporate lobbying on climate policy."}],[{"start":366.48,"text":"The lobbying appears to have paid off, with the government introducing new flexibilities last year that lowered non-compliance fines and allowed carmakers to sell more zero-emission cars in later years."}],[{"start":377.48,"text":"“Due to systematic industry lobbying over the last five years, the initial short-term limited flexibilities have evolved into extensive concessions that undermine the policy’s core ambition to increase zero-emission vehicle sales,” said Lucca Ewbank, head of transport at InfluenceMap."}],[{"start":393.8,"text":"Louise Haigh, Burnham’s first secretary of state, chaired a ministerial meeting on the ZEV mandate on Thursday. Carmakers will soon find out their fate: a decision is expected by the end of the year."}],[{"start":405.84,"text":"Additional reporting by Jim Pickard in London and Attracta Mooney in Antalya. Data visualisation by Steven Bernard."}],[{"start":412.72,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1794564012_7893.mp3"}