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观点 战争

Putin is running out of options
普京手上还剩下几张牌?

The Russian leader may want to escalate his war — but that is harder than it sounds | 拉赫曼:对俄罗斯领导人来说,升级战事有四条途径:加大常规军事行动的力度;使用核武器;直接攻击北约;以及“混合战争”。

Smoke billowed over St Petersburg this weekend, after Ukrainian drones struck the city’s oil terminal. In Moscow, long queues formed at those petrol stations that were still open.

上周末,在乌克兰无人机袭击了圣彼得堡的石油码头后,滚滚浓烟笼罩着这座城市。在莫斯科,那些仍在营业的加油站外排起了长队。

The increasing frequency and accuracy of Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes have caused Russia’s biggest fuel crisis in decades. It has also created a growing sense that the momentum in the war has changed. Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, said last month: “We, the Germans, the UK, the French all are of the view that the tide has turned . . . Putin is going to lose.”

乌克兰远程无人机袭击的频度和精准度日益提高,导致俄罗斯发生数十年来最严重的燃料危机。这也让越来越多人感觉到,这场战争的势头已经发生了变化。加拿大总理马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)上月表示:“我们、德国、英国、法国都认为,局势已经发生逆转……普京将会失败。”

But few people believe that the Russian leader will simply accept defeat, so western policymakers are braced for a summer of escalation. “The question we’re all asking”, says one, “is what is Putin going to do?”

但没几个人相信俄罗斯领导人会爽快地接受失败,因此西方政策制定者正准备迎接一个战事不断升级的夏天。“我们都在问的问题是,”其中一人表示,“普京接下来会怎么做?”

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